Major City Insights

Inflation and Interest Rates Bring New Challenges.

Updated: October 21, 2022

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While ongoing supply chain issues and other challenges sparked by the pandemic are still headaches, COVID-19 is no longer the biggest risk to the economies of most major cities across Canada. The main concern in the near term is the impact of stubbornly high inflation and rising interest rates.

This edition of our Major City Insights provides new forecasts for growth in 13 major cities in Canada as of September 2, 2022.

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Key findings

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The unemployment rate in Vancouver has tracked above the provincial average throughout 2021 and 2022. We expect the city’s unemployment rate will average 5.0 per cent this year and 5.2 per cent in 2023. It won’t dip under the provincial rate again until 2025.

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Regina’s growth this year is being spearheaded by the primary and utilities sector. A much-improved harvest will see output in that sector improve by 17.0 per cent, with spinoff effects across a number of other sectors.

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Ottawa–Gatineau’s economy has been on a roll this year. The city added nearly 50,000 jobs in the first half of the year—equivalent to a gain of 6.4 per cent.

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Rising interest rates have overwhelmed Calgary’s economic turnaround and ongoing population growth to cool demand for existing homes. Sales have fallen steadily since the spring.

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City Forecasts: Autumn 2022

Book 1

Calgary

4-min read  |  October 14, 2022
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Edmonton

4-min read  |  October 14, 2022
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Halifax

4-min read  |  October 18, 2022
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Hamilton

4-min read  |  October 21, 2022
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Montréal

4-min read  |  October 20, 2022
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Ottawa–Gatineau

4-min read  |  October 14, 2022
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Québec City

4-min read  |  October 21, 2022
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Regina

4-min read  |  October 14, 2022
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Saskatoon

4-min read  |  October 18, 2022
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Toronto

4-min read  |  October 14, 2022
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Vancouver

4-min read  |  October 14, 2022
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Victoria

4-min read  |  October 14, 2022
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Winnipeg

4-min read  |  October 19, 2022
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Previous Forecasts

Summer 2022: Book 2

Greater Sudbury

4-min read  |  Jul 20, 2022
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Guelph

4-min read  |  Jul 12, 2022
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Kingston

4-min read  |  Jul 12, 2022
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Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo

4-min read  |  Jul 21, 2022
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London

4-min read  |  Jul 12, 2022
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Moncton

4-min read  |  Jul 14, 2022
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Oshawa

4-min read  |  Jul 14, 2022
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St. Catharines–Niagara

4-min read  |  Jul 15, 2022
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St. John’s

4-min read  |  Jul 20, 2022
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Thunder Bay

4-min read  |  Jul 21, 2022
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Windsor

4-min read  |  Jul 21, 2022
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