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Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Autumn 2018 (WEB) The Conference Board of Canada, September 19, 2018 Website by Matthew Stewart

Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Autumn 2018 (WEB)

The Conference Board of Canada, September 19, 2018
Website by Matthew Stewart

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook. Document Highlights Although the economy performed well in the second quarter of 2018, growth will slow over the remainder of the year and into 2019. The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2018 as a whole before slowing to 1.8 per cent in 2019. Concerns over trade negotiations, carbon taxes, and a perception that Canada’s tax competitiveness has been eroded are hurting the willingness of firms to increase their capital spending. A shortage of pipeline capacity has limited our ability to take advantage of higher world oil prices. The outlook for oil investment remains bleak. Despite strong demand from the U.S., high capacity utilization in manufacturing is limiting our ability to increase our exports. The economic acceleration in the second quarter took a significant chunk out of the economy’s excess capacity. Consequently, we expect the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate again in October and three times more in 2019.

This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Document Highlights

Although the economy performed well in the second quarter of 2018, growth will slow over the remainder of the year and into 2019.
The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2018 as a whole before slowing to 1.8 per cent in 2019.
Concerns over trade negotiations, carbon taxes, and a perception that Canada’s tax competitiveness has been eroded are hurting the willingness of firms to increase their capital spending.
A shortage of pipeline capacity has limited our ability to take advantage of higher world oil prices. The outlook for oil investment remains bleak.
Despite strong demand from the U.S., high capacity utilization in manufacturing is limiting our ability to increase our exports.
The economic acceleration in the second quarter took a significant chunk out of the economy’s excess capacity. Consequently, we expect the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate again in October and three times more in 2019.

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