This study considers three different oil price scenarios over the next ten years to better understand how future oil price movements can impact Canada’s economic and fiscal performance.

Oil prices impact Canada’s industry in different ways. Sectors like oil producers, oilfield services, construction, financial services, and engineering benefit in a high oil price environment. When oil prices are low, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and transportation sectors are all better off.

The challenge for governments in this environment is to find the right balance between the many stakeholders, leveraging the benefits accrued to some while mitigating the costs to others, all while maintaining Canada’s economic health and diversity.

Executive Summary

Chapter 1—Introduction

Chapter 2—Three Potential Paths for Oil Prices

• “Reference” Scenario
• “Low Price” Scenario
• “High Price” Scenario

Chapter 3—Implications for Canada

• Trade
• Consumers
• Businesses
• Fiscal Implications

Chapter 4—Implications by Sector

• Oil Production and Oilfield Services
• Construction
• Other Sectors That Benefit From Higher Oil Prices
• Sectors That Benefit From Lower Oil Prices

Chapter 5—Implications by Province

• Alberta
• Other Provinces That Benefit From Higher Oil Prices
• Ontario and Quebec
• Other Provinces
• Provincial Fiscal Implications

Chapter 6—Summary

Appendix A—Bibliography

Appendix B—Model Methodology

• Defining the Scenarios
• Canadian Model
• Provincial Model
• U.S. Forecasting Model

Appendix C—Data Tables