Shocks and Struts: Canada’s Three-Year Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 19 pages, October 18, 2022
Impact Paper
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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Document Highlights

  • Inflation has likely peaked but is more widely spread through the economy, prompting more aggressive monetary tightening in Canada and worldwide.
  • Canada’s overall output growth will slow to a near standstill until spring 2023. A technical recession is possible, but underlying conditions are working in the economy’s favour.
  • Consumers will take a spending pause as a result of higher prices and loan costs. Home prices have more to fall.
  • The commodity price boom sparked by the war in Ukraine will dissipate, but it has left producers with hefty net savings to support hiring, wages, and investment.
  • Tight labour markets will cool off, and wage gains will not quite match price inflation in the short term, but employment losses will be less severe than in past slowdowns.
  • Slowing demand in the U.S. and in particular Europe will unsettle the non-energy trade profile.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
The Same, but More of It
Global and U.S. Outlooks
Canada’s Business Sector
Household Sector
Central Banks Aren’t Done Yet

Appendix A—Methodology

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