Forging Forward Despite Risks: Alberta’s Three-Year Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 13 pages, September 7, 2022
Issue Briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for Alberta examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry, and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • After rebounding by 5.0 per cent in 2021, Alberta’s economy will expand by 4.9 per cent in 2022. We expect further gains of 3.5 per cent in 2023 and 2.4 per cent in 2024.
  • Employment in the province has proved more resilient than the national average. We foresee employment will continue to climb by 4.9 per cent in 2022, before growth moderates to 1.3 per cent in 2023 and 1.6 per cent in 2024.
  • Alberta is now officially in labour shortage territory, with the unemployment rate at 4.8 per cent.
  • Oil prices have been extremely volatile over the last few months. While we expect prices will decrease over time, they will remain elevated, benefiting producers and the government alike.
  • Alberta is providing residents with some relief from high energy prices. These measures will result in higher-than-anticipated expenses for the provincial government, but extra-high oil royalties will more than compensate for these losses.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Alberta Snapshot
Overview
Labour Markets
Consumption
Investment
Fiscal Outlook
Trade and Energy Output
Methodology

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