Growth Downgraded Amid Flagging Consumer Confidence: Quebec’s Three-Year Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 15 pages, September 13, 2022
Issue Briefing
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This three-year economic forecast for the province of Quebec examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry, and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Faced with rising interest rates and consequently weakened consumption and investment demand, Quebec’s real GDP has been downgraded in 2022 and 2023.
  • Employment growth has slowed in Quebec as labour supply constraints bite. While immigration targets remain fixed, the province is making it easier for firms to hire temporary foreign workers.
  • Facing high inflation, households will cut back on discretionary spending, especially on goods, negatively impacting the performance across several sectors, including manufacturing and retail.
  • Thanks, in part, to an abundant supply of renewable energy, Quebec continues to be an attractive location for investment by overseas manufacturers involved in the production of electric vehicles.
  • Driven by higher prices and salaries, nominal GDP has been revised up. Tax receipts have risen, which will lead to a significant improvement in Quebec’s budgetary balance.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Quebec Snapshot
Overview
Industry Outlook
Labour Markets and Household Consumption
Investment Outlook
Government Outlook
Methodology

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