Rising Rates Hit Home: Provincial Three-Year Outlook—August 2022

The Conference Board of Canada, 21 pages, August 24, 2022
Impact Paper
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This quarterly economic forecast presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights

  • The Bank of Canada’s inflation fighting efforts will soon see results but will also quell economic output.
  • Oil and gas will propel the Saskatchewan and Alberta economies through 2024.
  • Starting in 2023, Newfoundland and Labrador will follow suit once production constraints are removed.
  • Even a modest crop year on the Prairies will be a vast improvement from drought-stricken 2021.
  • Positive signs in manufacturing, as well as the hospitality and recreation sectors returning to a more normal state of affairs, will help Ontario and British Columbia.
  • Industry fundamentals are also favourable in Quebec, but an aging workforce and slow population growth will constrain progress.
  • Investment projects are breaking ground in Atlantic Canada. But a reversal in the remote work trend will limit gains as some workers move away, particularly in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Overview
Newfoundland and Labrador
Prince Edward Island
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
British Columbia

Appendix A—Methodology

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