Prospects Remain Mixed for Trade: Canada’s Two-Year International Trade Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 16 pages, July 18, 2022
Issue Briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on international trade. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.

Document Highlights

  • Over the short term, Canada’s merchandise export performance will be diminished by slower U.S. demand and the ongoing global supply chain crisis.
  • Slowing consumer spending and business investment will take some steam out of merchandise import activity.
  • With imports outperforming exports this year, the trade sector will be a drag on real GDP growth for the second year in a row.
  • The lifting of most public-health and travel restrictions will fire up non-merchandise trade.
  • Solid gains in the terms of trade will lift Canada’s current account to new heights in 2022.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
International Trade Snapshot
Trade Outlook
U.S. Outlook
Turbulence in the Export Sector Continues
Merchandise Imports Activity Eases
Non-merchandise Trade Deficit Widens
Current Account Surplus Climbs to a Record High in 2022

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