Light at the End of the Tunnel: Saskatchewan’s Two-Year Outlook—June 2022

The Conference Board of Canada, 15 pages, June 21, 2022
Issue briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Saskatchewan examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry, and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Last year’s drought caused agricultural real GDP in Saskatchewan to fall by almost half, leaving the province the only one in Canada to have real GDP decline in 2021.
  • Elevated commodity prices and a significant agricultural rebound will push Saskatchewan’s real GDP growth to the highest in Canada in 2022 and third highest in 2023.
  • Several major capital projects are coming down the pipeline, and we are forecasting real non-residential business investment to grow by 8.7 per cent in 2022 and 4.9 per cent in 2023.
  • Saskatchewan had the lowest price growth in the country in 2021, but inflation will almost double in 2022, hurting real wages and income.
  • Growth in housing prices in Saskatchewan has been the lowest in the country with the number of new builds rising to meet increased demand. As that demand cools, housing starts will fall this year.
  • The government boasts the second-lowest net-debt-to-GDP ratio in the country, and a relatively young population and rising immigration leave the province’s fiscal outlook positive.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Saskatchewan Snapshot
Overview
Labour Markets
Income and Consumption
Investment
International Trade
Government Finances
Methodology

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