Facing the Sequence of Challenges: Provincial Outlook to 2045

The Conference Board of Canada, 23 pages, February 11, 2022
Impact Paper
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This annual economic forecast presents the long-term provincial outlook.

Document Highlights

  • Pandemic-related stresses will give way to longer-term shifts in the provincial economies.
  • Births will no longer outnumber deaths in Canada, leaving immigration as the only net source of population growth. The Atlantic provinces and Quebec will see this the most.
  • The oil and gas sector will continue to be an economic driver, but its influence will diminish as alternative sources of energy power up.
  • The age profile of the workforce and the way the economy gets its energy will generate new pathways for business capital investment. But Canada will face a competitive international marketplace when it comes to selling its innovations.
  • The federal government ran up the bulk of pandemic-related public debt. However, provincial governments will continue to face fiscal challenges from rising health care and education costs.
  • Expect to see P.E.I., B.C., and Alberta lead growth in the next few years and Ontario to join them in the longer term as immigration ramps up.
  • Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador will post the slowest growth throughout the forecast period, held back by their older populations.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Overview
Newfoundland and Labrador
Prince Edward Island
Nova Scotia
New Brunswick
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
British Columbia
Appendix A—Methodology

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