Some Semblance of Normalcy: Two-Year World Outlook
The Conference Board of Canada, 22 pages
October 29, 2021
This quarterly examination of the short-term economic outlook for the world’s major economies also contains an in-depth analysis of a number of issues that are relevant for understanding world economic trends and developments.
- The world economy will expand by 5.7 per cent this year and by 4.4 per cent in 2022. Last year, the pandemic led to a 3.3 per cent collapse in global GDP.
- The recovery is being driven by several factors, including massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, as well as the successful rollout of vaccines in many parts of the world.
- The U.S. recovery remains on track, but concerns are mounting about inflation, which is currently running in the 5.0 per cent range. Monetary officials contend that the surge in inflation is transitory.
- Weakness in the rolling out of vaccines is restraining the economic rebound in Latin America. Fortunately, rising commodity prices have helped the recovery, as has the rise in global trade.
- Ongoing shortages of fuel in the United Kingdom are due mainly to a shortage of truck drivers. Tougher visa requirements following Brexit caused numerous drivers from mainland Europe to return home. The U.K. government is offering temporary visas to encourage truck drivers to return.
- The surge in demand for durable goods during the pandemic has overwhelmed the global supply of container ships and led to shortages of consumer goods.
Table of Contents
Pluses for Global Economy Outweigh Negatives … for Now
U.S. on the Mend but Uncertainty Remains High
Recovery in Latin America Lags
Countries Starting to Tap Into EU Recovery Fund
Where Have All the Truckers Gone?
Asia-Pacific Continues to Lead World in Growth
Appendix A: Methodology and Assumptions