On the Rebound: Ontario’s Two-Year Outlook—September 2021

The Conference Board of Canada, 14 pages, September 1, 2021
Issue briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Ontario examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Ontario’s real GDP will expand by 6.7 per cent this year,
    with a further gain of 4.1 per cent anticipated in 2022.
  • The recovery will be led by gains in household spending due to pent-up demand and the excess savings built up last year. If the current surge in inflation turns out to be more persistent, however, consumers could pull back as their real incomes erode somewhat.
  • A shortage of microchips is hurting auto production in Ontario and could restrain export growth to the key U.S. market. Vehicles are Ontario’s largest export to the United States.
  • Housing markets in Toronto have cooled down over the past four months as sales have declined and price gains have levelled off. The appeal of moving to larger properties due
    to the pandemic appears to have eased back.
  • The provincial government is unlikely to balance its books over the forecast period because economic growth will slow down beyond 2022. This will restrain growth in government revenue at a time when health care spending is on the rise.

Table of Contents

Key findings
Ontario snapshot
Overview
Labour markets
Consumer spending
Investment spending
Government
Exports
Methodology

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