Momentum Builds as Quebec Reopens: Quebec’s Two-Year Outlook—August 2021

The Conference Board of Canada, 14 pages, August 25, 2021
Issue briefing
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This annual economic forecast for the province of Quebec examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Led by growth in several services industries, the Quebec economy will perform well over the rest of the year, allowing real GDP growth of 6.8 per cent for 2021.
  • As the economy returns to a stable growth path, we forecast GDP growth of 3.7 per cent in 2022 and 1.3 per cent in 2023.
  • The energy that has characterized the construction industry and residential business investment will begin to dissipate.
    As labour demand rises, tightness will return to the labour market in Quebec, with the unemployment rate falling to 5.7 per cent by the end of the year.
  • The reopening of the economy will spur growth in household spending, while reduced government transfers to households will contribute to bringing disposable household income back in line with the long-term trend.
  • Easing travel restrictions will boost the number of visitors to the province and provide a welcome boost to Quebec’s aerospace industry.

Table of Contents

Key findings
Quebec snapshot
Industry outlooks
Labour markets
Labour shortages threaten health care services

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