U.S. and China Shoulder the Burden of Global Recovery: Two-Year World Outlook
The Conference Board of Canada, 23 pages
August 11, 2021
This quarterly examination of the short-term economic outlook for the world’s major economies also contains an in-depth analysis of a number of issues that are relevant for understanding world economic trends and developments.
- The world economy will expand by 5.8 per cent in 2021 and 4.3 per cent in 2022.
- The rebound in global economic activity will be led by the Asia-Pacific region, which is benefiting from the strong recovery in the Chinese economy and rising trade volumes as the severity of the pandemic slowly starts to fade.
- Latin America will continue to struggle due to the weak rollout of vaccinations and poor leadership in countries like Mexico and Brazil, which have consistently downplayed the effect of COVID-19. Argentina and Venezuela were in trouble before the onset of the pandemic, and their struggles have continued.
- To counteract the negative impact on export demand attributable to Brexit, the United Kingdom is attempting to sign free trade agreements with other countries. A free trade deal with Australia was signed in June 2021.
- The auto industries in Germany and Spain are struggling due to the global shortage of semiconductors, which have become a key component of vehicles.
- Africa has done slightly better than most parts of the world at controlling the spread of the virus, possibly because of three factors: African countries’ experience at handling other infectious diseases like malaria; its relatively young population; and limited infrastructure, which therefore decreases contacts between people on the continent.
Table of Contents
Surging U.S. economy linked to unprecedented turnaround in consumer spending
Latin America continues to be a drag on global growth
European economy on the mend but challenges remain
Asia-Pacific still number one
Africa’s complicated rebound
Appendix A—Methodology and assumptions