U.S. and China Shoulder the Burden of Global Recovery: Two-Year World Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 23 pages, August 11, 2021
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This quarterly examination of the short-term economic outlook for the world’s major economies also contains an in-depth analysis of a number of issues that are relevant for understanding world economic trends and developments.

Document Highlights

  • The world economy will expand by 5.8 per cent in 2021 and 4.3 per cent in 2022.
  • The rebound in global economic activity will be led by the Asia-Pacific region, which is benefiting from the strong recovery in the Chinese economy and rising trade volumes as the severity of the pandemic slowly starts to fade.
  • Latin America will continue to struggle due to the weak rollout of vaccinations and poor leadership in countries like Mexico and Brazil, which have consistently downplayed the effect of COVID-19. Argentina and Venezuela were in trouble before the onset of the pandemic, and their struggles have continued.
  • To counteract the negative impact on export demand attributable to Brexit, the United Kingdom is attempting to sign free trade agreements with other countries. A free trade deal with Australia was signed in June 2021.
  • The auto industries in Germany and Spain are struggling due to the global shortage of semiconductors, which have become a key component of vehicles.
  • Africa has done slightly better than most parts of the world at controlling the spread of the virus, possibly because of three factors: African countries’ experience at handling other infectious diseases like malaria; its relatively young population; and limited infrastructure, which therefore decreases contacts between people on the continent.

Table of Contents

Key findings
Overview
Surging U.S. economy linked to unprecedented turnaround in consumer spending
Latin America continues to be a drag on global growth
European economy on the mend but challenges remain
Asia-Pacific still number one
Africa’s complicated rebound
Appendix A—Methodology and assumptions

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