Major City Insights: St. John’s—July 2021

The Conference Board of Canada, July 21, 2021
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Climbing vaccination rates mean cities across Canada are poised to bounce back from COVID-19-induced recessions this year. Hot housing markets and pent-up demand for in-person shopping, eating in restaurants, and travel will all help fuel the economic recovery.

This edition of Major City Insights provides our new forecast for growth in St.  John’s as of June 3, 2021.

Document Highlights

  • After contracting by 8.2 per cent in 2020, real GDP in St. John’s is set to grow by 5.8 per cent in 2021 and 4.2 per cent next year.
  • The city was able to keep the number of COVID-19 cases contained for much of last year, allowing its economy to reopen faster than much of the rest of the country. But this success was overshadowed by travel restrictions and the added impact of low oil prices on activity in the offshore oil industry.
  • The vaccine rollout will allow economic activity return to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of this year, especially with the province opening for travel, with no quarantine restrictions, to fully vaccinated Canadians.
  • Although the second and third waves of the pandemic led to job losses in the first half of this year, we expect hiring will pick up in the second half, allowing job numbers to pass their pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter.

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