Major City Insights: Moncton—July 2021

The Conference Board of Canada, July 23, 2021
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Climbing vaccination rates mean cities across Canada are poised to bounce back from COVID-19-induced recessions this year. Hot housing markets and pent-up demand for in-person shopping, eating in restaurants, and travel will all help fuel the economic recovery.

This edition of Major City Insights provides our new forecast for growth in Moncton as of June 3, 2021.

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Document Highlights

  • Although Moncton managed to limit COVID-19 cases in the first wave of the pandemic, daily case counts began rising in November and into the new year. Strict provincial health guidelines combined with the vaccine rollout have since led to daily cases dropping significantly since.
  • As the vaccination rollout continues and restrictions loosen further, the city’s economic growth will pick up, with GDP rising by 5.3 per cent in 2021 and 3.0 per cent in 2022.
  • Higher case counts and the resulting closures early in 2021 will weigh on annual employment growth this year. Employment fell by 1.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2021 but will bounce back in the second quarter and beyond.
  • Overall, employment will grow by 2.0 per cent in 2021, followed by an increase of 0.6 per cent in 2022.

Faits saillants

  • Bien que Moncton ait réussi à limiter le nombre de cas de COVID-19 lors de la première vague de la pandémie, les chiffres ont augmenté en novembre et jusqu’au début de 2021. Des directives sanitaires provinciales strictes ajoutées à la campagne vaccinale ont depuis permis de faire baisser considérablement le nombre de cas quotidien.
  • La campagne vaccinale se poursuivant et les restrictions s’assouplissant encore, la croissance du PIB de la ville devrait s’établir à 5,3 % en 2021 et à 3 % en 2022.
  • L’augmentation du nombre de cas et les fermetures décidées au début de 2021 pèseront sur la croissance annuelle de l’emploi cette année. L’emploi a reculé de 1,4 % au premier trimestre de 2021, mais il repartira à la hausse dès le deuxième trimestre.
  • Dans l’ensemble, l’emploi devrait augmenter de 2 % en 2021, puis de 0,6 % en 2022.

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