After contracting by 5.3 per cent last year, we forecast real GDP in Manitoba to expand by 4.5 per cent in 2021 and 3.3 per cent in 2022. With a rising case count and additional business closures imposed at the beginning of May, the province’s recovery may stagnate in the short term. Still, Manitoba’s diverse economy and good vaccine rollout should help it cope with this new wave of COVID-19.
In Manitoba Can’t Outrun a Third Wave: Manitoba’s Two-Year Outlook, we forecast that strong commodity prices and a robust international demand for agri-food products should help fuel Manitoba’s exports in 2021. To fight the pandemic, Manitoba recorded an unprecedented deficit of $2.1 billion in 2020. A further deficit of $1.6 billion is expected in 2021 as support programs are extended. With few new major investment projects announced, we also forecast sluggish growth for non-residential investments and construction output in the medium term.