Rebounding Oil Prices Boost Alberta’s Prospects: Alberta’s Two-Year Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 14 pages, June 23, 2021
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This quarterly economic forecast for Alberta examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product, output by industry, and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

In Rebounding Oil Prices Boost Alberta’s Prospects: Alberta’s Two-Year Outlook, we forecast that the recovery in Alberta’s economy over the near term will be one of the fastest in the country. This will be due in part to the larger drop in activity last year, which has led to a greater comeback in activity. Alberta’s real GDP dropped by close to 8 per cent last year, but will expand by more than 7.2 per cent in 2021 followed by a gain of 5.6 per cent in 2022.

Investment spending was languishing even before the pandemic hit due partially to a lack of pipeline capacity. This issue will continue to restrain investment spending through the medium term. The potential cancellation of Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline could make it even more challenging to deliver oil to both domestic and international markets and for Alberta to run balanced budgets over the forecast period.

 

Table of Contents

Key findings

Alberta snapshot

Between the Rockies and a hard place

Ongoing volatility in Alberta’s labour markets

Consumer spending on the mend

Investment outlook fraught with risks

Balanced budget a long way off

Export recovery under way

Methodology

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