Atlantic Bubble Has Burst, but Bright Prospects Ahead: Prince Edward Island’s Two-Year Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 13 pages, March 18, 2021
Issue Briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Prince Edward Island examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • With COVID-19 cases on the rise elsewhere in Canada, P.E.I. took advantage of its island status, opting out of the Atlantic bubble in November to maintain its low case count.
  • This exit will hamper the economic recovery, mostly in the first quarter of 2021. But with the vaccine rollout under way, prospects are bright for the province.
  • Tourism and immigration—two of the key drivers behind Prince Edward Island’s economic gains in recent years—were severely hurt by the border closures. We expect that as vaccination programs ramp up, tourists and immigrants will return to the Island in droves.
  • Government will continue to be an essential source of stability during this economic crisis. Ahead of its much-anticipated 2021 budget, the government revealed its capital budget, which included plans to spend $195 million on capital projects in the coming fiscal year.
  • After suffering one of the worst economic shocks in decades, the province should recover quickly, growing by 4.9 per cent this year and 5.0 per cent in 2022.

Table of Contents

Key findings

Prince Edward Island snapshot

Overview

Mixed signals for tourism industry

Labour market recovery hits a speedbump

Construction remains strong

Government will continue to be a source of stability

Capital Budget 2021 sees big increases up front before slowing over medium term

Methodology

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