Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Alberta—June 2020

The Conference Board of Canada, 13 pages, June 17, 2020
Issue briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Alberta examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Alberta’s real GDP will decline 6.8 per cent this year as the economy suffers through the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures put in place to contain it.
  • The provincial government’s deficit will worsen significantly as expenditures on health care and transfers to businesses and households increase at the same that royalties and tax revenues are drying up.
  • The unemployment rate will spike to 17.4 per cent in the second quarter. Even though the second half of the year will see an improvement, more than 130,000 jobs will be lost across the province in 2020.
  • With global oil storage facilities filled to the brim and oil prices having hit historic lows in April, Canadian oil producers will endure one of their worst stretches in history. Much production will be shut in over the next few months to help push prices back up toward break-even levels.
  • This recession will set the provincial economy back years. Real GDP won’t return to its 2014 high until the fourth quarter of 2022.

Table of Contents

Key findings

Alberta snapshot

Province bracing for historic economic contraction

Consumer outlook

Investment outlook

Government outlook

Trade and energy outlook

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