Provincial Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: British Columbia—2019

The Conference Board of Canada, 153 pages, February 11, 2019
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This annual economic forecast for the province of British Columbia examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Real GDP growth in B.C. will moderate over the long term due in large part to aging demographics, which will cut into labour force growth.
  • In 2028, B.C. will become the first of the western and central provinces in Canada to face a negative natural rate of population increase.
  • Housing starts in B.C. are expected to contract by 70 per cent between now and 2040, as moderate population growth will detract from the pace of household formation.
  • The recent go-ahead of LNG Canada’s liquified natural gas project will boost B.C.’s investment profile until the middle of the next decade.
  • A log shortage due to the mountain pine beetle infestation and worsening wildfire seasons will constrain real output growth in B.C.’s forestry sector.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

British Columbia

  • Overview
  • Demographic Patterns
  • Potential Output
  • Aggregate Demand
  • Industry Analysis

Appendix A—Defining and Estimating Potential Output for Canada’s Provinces

  • Measuring Potential Output
  • The Output Gap

Appendix B—Forecast Tables

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