Global Economic Outlook: Is Protectionism the New World Order?

The Conference Board of Canada, July 18, 2017
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Trade protectionism rhetoric and a movement to retreat behind national boundaries appears to have slowed the relentless march of global economic integration. While Canada remains committed to international trade and global engagement, Canadian governments and businesses must navigate a changing worldwide climate.

Webinar Highlights

Join Pedro Antunes and Kip Beckman, two Conference Board economists with a combined 60 years of experience and expertise, for this evidence-based analysis of the current U.S. and World economic outlooks and the implications of the protectionist wave on Canadian performance.

In the U.S., President Donald Trump contends that the economy can grow much faster than the average annual gain of around 2 per cent since the recession ended in 2009. President Trump’s dream for annual growth of 3 to 4 per cent in the U.S. economy is based on passing tax reform, rolling back regulations on business, boosting infrastructure spending, and reversing U.S. trade deficits.

Concerns about the rise of the far right in the European Union are easing, but the euro’s future is still not assured. The U.K.’s Brexit negotiation strategy is uncertain following the June election. Italy, the EU’s third-largest economy, is now at the top of the list of countries which has the potential to shake the eurozone.

Latin America’s leading economies are in trouble – Venezuela is descending into chaos, and Brazil, Argentina and Chile are coming off recessionary conditions.

In the Asia Pacific region, Japan is still muddling through, and China is progressing naturally into slower growth as it transitions to a consumer-centred economy. India is the new economic star performer in the region.

During this webinar, Pedro and Kip will dig deeper into global economic trends:

  • Trade balances – Trump views trade surpluses as a sign of economic strength. But the U.S has an overall trade deficit because it consumes more than it produces and doesn’t save enough; Germany has trade surpluses because it consumes too little and saves too much.
  • The U.K.’s Government of Uncertainty— The British election results upended the best-laid plans for negotiating Brexit with Europe, leading to questions marks about how the government will proceed.
  • The Italian Jobless – With growth of less than 1 per cent, high unemployment levels, Italian banks in trouble, and the growing popularity of the far right Five-Star movement, the EU’s third largest economy poses the biggest risk to the stability of the eurozone and the EU.
  • The Rise of India—A decade ago India was 15th largest economy. Iit is now the 7th largest and could be the 3rd largest economy in the world by 2025. However, India remains one of the most difficult countries to do business in.
  • Productivity woes in Latin America – Higher productivity is the only way to improve the standard of living in Latin America. Productivity growth has been weak for decades and lags most countries in Asia. Unless productivity improves over the next few years, Latin America faces another decade of below-potential growth.

About Pedro

Pedro AntunesPedro Antunes is Deputy Chief Economist at The Conference Board of Canada. He is responsible for managing a team of economists in producing the Conference Board’s national and provincial medium and long-term economic forecasts along with other economic indicators and reports. Pedro joined the Conference Board as an economist in 1991 and has moved progressively into more senior roles since joining the Board.

About Kip

Kip BeckmanKip Beckman is Principal Economist, Forecasting and Analysis, where he oversees The Conference Board of Canada's quarterly forecasts of the U.S. and world economies. Kip joined the Conference Board in 1982. He holds a B.A. in Economics from Trent University and the University of Manitoba, and a M.A. in Economics from the University of Guelph. He is a regular contributor to the Board's Economics blog and does a number of speaking engagements throughout the year dealing with the state of the global economy.

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