Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Winter 2010
The Conference Board of Canada, 72 pages,
February 5, 2010
This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.
- Coordinated and extensive policy efforts the world over have
been successful at pulling the global economy on to a path of
recovery. But the success has come at significant cost in the
form of deep deficits across many of the world’s economies,
including our own.
- The U.S. economy came out of recession last year, posting
robust growth in the third quarter of 2009. However, a revival
in U.S. employment is needed to maintain momentum in the
- Government and household spending will contribute the most
to Canada’s economic growth in 2010. Stimulus spending is
expected to peak this year, while low financing rates and rising
consumer confidence should help loosen consumers’ purse
- Despite Governor Mark Carney’s concerns about over-indebted
households, we assume the Bank of Canada will refrain from
pushing up interest rates until mid-year.
- The rebound in retail gasoline prices has helped move the allitems
consumer price index from deflation back to inflation.
Consumer prices will also be boosted mid-year by the effects
of sales tax harmonization in Ontario and British Columbia.
- As the global economy recovers, global capital markets are
starting to settle, helping to stabilize the effects on the U.S. dollar
and the loonie. The Canadian dollar is expected to average just
under US$0.96 in 2010.