Wild Rose Country Buckling Up for Another Strong Year: Alberta’s Two-Year Outlook—June 2022

The Conference Board of Canada, 14 pages, June 14, 2022
Issue Briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Alberta examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • After expanding by 5.1 per cent in 2021, we forecast Alberta’s economy will grow by 6.6 per cent in 2022 and 4.7 per cent in 2023.
  • Employment has been continuously increasing since surpassing pre-pandemic levels last year. We foresee employment will continue to grow by 5.1 per cent in 2022. We expect growth will moderate to 2.1 per cent in 2023.
  • Oil prices have surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and we expect the conflict will drag into next year. The province will continue to benefit from elevated oil prices until 2023.
  • The labour shortage in the oil and gas sector is a major downside risk going forward. A failure to attract new workers will significantly limit output growth in the future.
  • Alberta lifted the provincial gasoline tax to support consumers’ wallets. While this relief measure is already having positive effects, inflation remains an important risk factor going forward.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Alberta Snapshot
Overview
Labour Markets Buckling Up for Another Strong Year
Consumption
Oil prices
Investment
Fiscal Outlook
Exports
Methodology

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