Oil and Gas Sector Restraining Recovery: Newfoundland and Labrador’s Two-Year Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 14 pages, June 16, 2022
Issue Briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Newfoundland and Labrador examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Newfoundland and Labrador’s real GDP will increase by 0.1 per cent this year and 4.2 per cent in 2023.
  • The boost to real GDP growth next year is partially linked to higher oil production due to the restart of the Terra Nova offshore oil site.
  • Household spending will increase at a modest pace over the near term even though disposable income will decline this year from the scaling back of federal government pandemic support.
  • The government’s Come Home 2022 initiative should give a boost to consumer spending this summer.
  • Although the unemployment rate will decline over the near term, it will remain at double-digit levels—the highest unemployment rate in Canada.
  • Housing starts will begin to cool down at the end of this year due to higher mortgage rates.
  • The province plans to balance the books sometime over the medium term but this will be challenging due to weak economic growth.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Newfoundland and Labrador Snapshot
Overview
Labour Markets, Income, and Consumption
Business Investment
Trade
Government
Methodology

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