Demographics, Oil Production Impact Long-Term Forecast: Newfoundland and Labrador’s Outlook to 2045

The Conference Board of Canada, 16 pages, February 11, 2022
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This annual economic forecast for the province of Newfoundland and Labrador examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Newfoundland and Labrador’s economy will experience either weak or negative growth over the long term. This is due to the combination of an aging population and a slowdown in oil production.
  • The province’s population will decline over the long term mainly because of Newfoundlanders moving to other provinces due to weak economic prospects.
  • Oil production is expected to slow down over 2030 to 2045 because of the offshore oil reserves’ depletion and the federal government’s plans to reduce the economy’s dependence on fossil fuels.
  • Because weak economic growth will restrain revenue growth, the provincial government must make difficult choices over the next 20 years if it hopes to reduce fiscal deficits.
  • Newfoundland and Labrador will run trade surpluses over the long term. This is mainly because import growth will be curtailed by a sluggish increase in household spending.

Table of Contents

Key findings
Overview
Demographics
Potential Output
Investment
Housing
Consumption
Government
Trade
Industry
Methodology

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