U.S. on the Mend but Uncertainty Remains High: U.S. Outlook to 2025

The Conference Board of Canada, 21 pages, November 3, 2021
Impact Paper
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This quarterly report focuses on the latest economic developments in the U.S. economy, tracking trends in labour, consumer, energy and housing markets, and examining industries and regions. Monetary and fiscal policy assumptions are also included.

Document Highlights

  • The U.S. economy will expand by 5.9 per cent this year and by 4.1 per cent in 2022.
  • The main risk to the outlook comes from the rapid spread of the coronavirus’s delta variant, which has led to a pause in travel and restaurant bookings and hurt consumer confidence.
  • Inflation has surged since the spring and has proven to be more persistent than Fed officials had assumed. We believe the surge in consumer prices is transitory, a view supported by the gradual decline in the rate of monthly price increases since April. However, the threat of higher inflation remains a downside risk to the outlook.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Overview
Aggregate Demand
Fed Starts to Gradually Reduce Massive Stimulus
Is China Ready to Replace the U.S. as Global Leader?
Appendix A—Methodology and Assumptions

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