Housing Markets Moderating: Canada’s Two-Year Housing Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, October 21, 2021
Issue Briefing
(You must be signed in and entitled to rate this report)

This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on housing. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.

Document Highlights

  • Canadian housing markets are throttling back following months of frenetic activity. Still, key underpinnings, such as mortgage interest rates, employment growth, and household formation, remain generally supportive.
  • The pandemic led to a massive increase in the number of people working from home and boosted demand for homes outside big cities. This could continue, further increasing residential demand in smaller centres.
  • Canada’s average resale price has peaked for now but will end 2021 up a record 24.2 per cent. We expect modest dips through 2023 and a peak-to-trough price drop of 10 per cent.
  • Canadian housing starts will hit a record-high 275,100 units in 2021, then ease to a still strong 236,500 units in 2022.
  • Residential investment has become a large component of GDP; its recent pullback and slow-growth prospects could be a significant economic drag.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
Housing Snapshot
Markets Come Off the Boil
Forecast Underpinnings: Interest Rates and the Job Markets
Policy Moves
New Construction
Housing Starts
Resale Markets
Residential Investment

COVID-19: Get all the insights

To see if you are entitled to get this research for free, take a minute and create a free e-Library account. This will let us determine if someone else at your organization has already purchased access to this material.

Browse by...
Need Help?