Major City Insights: Toronto—Autumn 2021

The Conference Board of Canada, October 7, 2021
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Thanks to COVID-19 vaccines and reduced public health restrictions, economic momentum in major cities across the country is building. Vaccine passes will help to prevent new restrictions, but the presence of variants is still a downside risk to our outlook.

Document Highlights

  • Toronto’s economy will expand by 6.6 per cent in 2021, following a COVID-19-induced 5.0 per cent decline in 2020.
  • Growth this year will depend on a number of factors, not the least of which is the rate at which the city is able to get people vaccinated and the consequent impacts of the delta variant through the fourth wave.
  • There are also indications that exports have been slower than previously expected and that supply chain problems continue to affect multiple sectors of the economy.
  • Growth in 2021 is being partly fuelled by healthy household balance sheets, as the overall savings rate soared in 2020.
  • Baring additional shutdowns in the fourth wave, we expect employment will grow by 4.3 per cent overall in 2021, reaching its pre-COVID-19 level in the fourth quarter of this year, just behind the recovery in output.

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