After Hot Start, Jobs Recovery Has Slowed: Canada’s Two-Year Household Income and Employment Outlook
The Conference Board of Canada, 13 pages,
November 3, 2020
This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on household income and employment. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.
- While the job recovery started strong, it has since slowed.
- The lost jobs won’t be fully recovered until the fourth quarter of 2021, as many industries have a long way to go.
- Serious structural issues mean that many of the 700,000 jobs that have yet to be recovered might never come back.
- The surge in wage growth during the pandemic was a result of the unequal effects of the pandemic on high- and low-wage earners.
- We expect wage growth to slow substantially in 2021 and 2022 as companies deal with the financial ramifications of the pandemic.
- It will be important for governments to accelerate their research on the impact of automation on labour markets, as the pandemic has led to an even greater reliance on new technologies.
- The CERB helped support households during the shutdown, but its gradual phase-out will leave some households in trouble.
- On the positive side, many households saved much of their windfall from the CERB, a wise move given the autumn resurgence of the virus.