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Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Nova Scotia—Autumn 2018 The Conference Board of Canada, 62 pages, December 20, 2018 Report

Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Nova Scotia—Autumn 2018

The Conference Board of Canada, 62 pages, December 20, 2018
Report

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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Nova Scotia examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions. Document Highlights Overall, Nova Scotia’s real GDP is forecast to advance by just 1.0 per cent in 2019, but that will be followed by a stronger 1.7 per cent gain in 2020. Strong immigration is contributing positively to the labour force and employment outlook. Despite rising health care needs and a shrinking tax base, the province’s fiscal situation remains good. To maintain that healthy position, the provincial government is not expected to increase program spending or make any personal or corporate tax changes. The Goldboro Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project has been included in our forecast although it is still speculative. If it goes ahead, business investment will get a boost. Trade will get a lift from expansions at the Michelin Tire Plant in Pictou County and the cargo handling facilities at the Halifax Stanfield International Airport. Table of Contents RÉSUMÉ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Nova Scotia–Some Positive and Some Negative Elements for Nova Scotia Labour, Income, and Consumption Outlook Government Outlook Business Investment Outlook Trade Outlook Key Sectors Outlook Appendix A–Forecast Tables

This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Nova Scotia examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

Overall, Nova Scotia’s real GDP is forecast to advance by just 1.0 per cent in 2019, but that will be followed by a stronger 1.7 per cent gain in 2020.
Strong immigration is contributing positively to the labour force and employment outlook.
Despite rising health care needs and a shrinking tax base, the province’s fiscal situation remains good. To maintain that healthy position, the provincial government is not expected to increase program spending or make any personal or corporate tax changes.
The Goldboro Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project has been included in our forecast although it is still speculative. If it goes ahead, business investment will get a boost.
Trade will get a lift from expansions at the Michelin Tire Plant in Pictou County and the cargo handling facilities at the Halifax Stanfield International Airport.

RÉSUMÉ

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Nova Scotia–Some Positive and Some Negative Elements for Nova Scotia

Labour, Income, and Consumption Outlook
Government Outlook
Business Investment Outlook
Trade Outlook
Key Sectors Outlook

Appendix A–Forecast Tables

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