Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Winter 2019 (PDF)

The Conference Board of Canada, 28 pages, December 18, 2018
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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Document Highlights

  • The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2.1 per cent in 2018 before slowing to 1.9 per cent growth in 2019.
  • Household spending has been driving economic growth over the last several years but will ease in the face of high household debt loads, rising interest rates, and soft wage growth.
  • Residential construction will fall, pulled down by the lower demand for new homes and a weaker outlook for renovation spending.
  • Energy investment will remain weak due to ongoing weakness in Canadian oil prices. Energy exports will decline as low investment takes a toll on future production and government-mandated production cuts take effect in Alberta.
  • Stronger economic growth will depend on improved business investment and a better performance from the non-energy trade sector.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Economic Risks Tilt to the Downside
  • World Economic Growth Plateauing
  • U.S. Economy Is Moving Toward More Sustainable Growth
  • Households Tighten Their Purse Strings
  • Rising Interest Rates, Moderating Employment Gains, and Policy Moves Cool Housing Markets
  • Collapse in Oil Prices Hitting Canada’s Energy Sector Hard
  • Investment Growth Will Be Led by the Non-mining Side
  • Trade Hits a Few Speed Bumps
  • Slower Economic Growth Adds to Fiscal Concerns
  • Monetary Tightening Reverts to Cautious Approach

Appendix A—Forecast Tables

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