The US economic recovery will stall over the winter but will reboot in 2021.
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As new cases of COVID-19 rise in the US, the rebound seen in many economic indicators has started to wane. However, the large deceleration in consumer spending growth in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 will eventually give way to a much stronger Q3 2021 as consumer confidence and demand are bolstered by further government stimulus, a stronger labor market, and the wide availability of a vaccine. Our base case US forecast scenario yields a 2.8 percent (annualized) expansion in GDP growth in Q4 2020. This results in an annual contraction of 3.6 percent in 2020. While GDP growth of about 3.6 percent is expected in 2021, the US economy will not return to its prerecession output level until Q4 2021.
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