This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Alberta examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.
Document Highlights
Alberta will experience a mild economic contraction in 2019 as the energy sector reacts negatively to mandated production cuts. A solid recovery is set for 2020 as megaprojects get under way.
Output in the drilling sector will decline by about one-third in 2019 compared with 2018. The resulting employment losses may not be recovered as workers head to the United States or to other careers.
Investment in the province will increase in 2020 after five straight years of decline.
Labour markets will feel the impact of the mild recession this year as employment growth is relatively flat.
Residential investment will increase in 2020 after two straight years of decline as more Albertans get back to work with solid wage increases. Most of the housing starts over the forecast will be in multiples.
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