Provincial Fiscal Outlook—July 2025

Provincial Fiscal Outlook—July 2025

Canadian Economic Analysis Provincial Economic Analysis
20 min read

Author: CBoC Economics Team

$2,195.00

The Canada–U.S. trade war plus demographic challenges are contributing to a sluggish economy, with most provinces struggling to balance their books. But our fiscal outlook brightens over the next five years, with stronger economic growth forecasted.

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Deficits to Gradually Narrow

Provincial governments across Canada are facing fiscal challenges. Most are struggling to balance their books amid spending pressures, as pandemic-related interest costs linger, and a rising number of seniors is increasing demand for healthcare. Yet, despite the challenges, our fiscal outlook improves toward the end of the decade.

How is Canada’s incoming population slowdown affecting the provincial fiscal landscape? While Alberta and Saskatchewan remain in the strongest fiscal position of all the provinces, what is the impact of having their revenues closely tied to the resource sector? How does Ontario plan to return to balance later this decade given its focus on infrastructure spending?

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