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Metropolitan Resale Snapshot: June 2020

Markets rebound in May, but activity remains weak

  • Canadian housing markets bounced back from April's low, but activity continues to be tepid. Market participants remain cautious as they navigate new COVID-19 protocols for listing, inspecting, and selling houses. Changes to federal policy, including recent sharp interest rate cuts, will help markets eventually improve, but uncertain job conditions pose a risk.
  • Sales rose in 29 of our 30 markets in May. Only Newfoundland and Labrador saw volumes fall. Most month-to-month increases were large, but sales were still far behind their year-earlier levels in all 30 markets. Listings were also up in all markets, both from the previous month and from the prior year. Sales and listing volatility makes the current state of the market difficult to assess.
  • Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montréal all saw big sales rebounds in May, but transactions remained well off their year-earlier levels and are historically soft.
  • Vancouver, Calgary, and Montréal all saw listings rise faster than sales, but Toronto saw the reverse. This sharply cut the first three cities' sales-to-listings ratios, but boosted Toronto's.
  • Prices edged higher in Toronto and Calgary last month. Vancouver's value was little changed, and Montréal's fell. Values nonetheless remained above year-earlier levels in all cities but Calgary. 

Recent market performance




Long Term header


Short Term header
  • Halifax
  • Saint John
  • Sudbury
  • Thunder Bay
  • Vancouver
  • Winnipeg
   
  • Saskatoon
  • Gatineau
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Moncton
   
 
 
  • Newfoundland
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Hamilton
  • Kitchener
  • London
  • Ottawa
  • Oshawa
  • St. Catharines
  • Toronto
  • Victoria
  • Windsor
  • Fraser Valley


  • Guelph
  • Regina
  • Kingston
  • Montréal
  • Québec City
  • Sherbrooke
  • Saguenay
*average month-to-month change during latest three months.

Forecast of near-term price growth (year-over-year)

+7% None
5–6.9% Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Windsor, Kingston,
Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Moncton, Halifax 
3–4.9% Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, St. Catharines, Saint John 
0–2.9% Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Québec City, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Saguenay 
Falling Regina, Calgary, Edmonton, Newfoundland 

Resale indicators for June 2020

Sales-to-new-listings ratio
Market1 Market
classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced market
range3
Price ($)
Victoria   4,056 8,928     693,420
m/m % Buyers' 52.9 67.2 0.469 0.482–0.762 0.5
y/y %   -43.0 -25.7     3.6
    14,916 37,176     1,010,148
Vancouver Buyers' 31.5 62.8 0.401 0.438–0.721 0.2
    -37.2 -28.0     2.9
    7,620 19,632     732,062
Fraser Valley4 Buyers' 20.5 65.6 0.410 0.446–0.716 -2.6
    -40.2 -30.0     4.9
    13,404 25,128     412,564
Calgary Balanced 68.7 91.6 0.544 0.466–0.728 1.1
    -38.6 -33.9     -6.4
    12,480 28,572     348,003
Edmonton Balanced 46.5 86.5 0.478 0.447–0.730 -0.5
    -34.8 -24.0     -2.9
    2,832 5,412     287,055
Regina Balanced 77.4 81.9 0.537 0.491–0.757 -1.9
    -2.5 -18.6     -6.5
    4,464 10,200     323,983
Saskatoon Balanced 73.8 75.3 0.447 0.425–0.681 1.0
    -7.7 -10.7     3.6
    10,848 19,368     299,178
Winnipeg Balanced 45.6 52.6 0.575 0.449–0.789 -1.0
    -16.2 -13.0     -1.1
    1,116 1,752     293,662
Thunder Bay Balanced 1.1 131.7 0.631 0.496–0.739 24.7
    -50.0 -43.6     22.1
    1,884 2,448     287,226
Sudbury Sellers' 44.0 53.4 0.819 0.345–0.640 12.1
    -21.5 -32.2     8.2
    42,540 73,476     825,674
Toronto Balanced 53.0 35.8 0.580 0.468–0.690 4.6
    -51.8 -52.9     2.9
    6,744 8,508     628,871
Oshawa Sellers' 49.5 13.6 0.793 0.481–0.746 5.9
    -32.9 -51.3     4.2
    8,052 9,900     630,768
Hamilton Sellers' 69.4 26.0 0.857 0.436–0.793 6.0
    -38.4 -48.7     10.2
    1,464 2,484     473,707
St. Catharines Balanced 45.2 10.7 0.622 0.398–0.707 3.6
    -40.8 -45.1     1.2
    4,908 6,984     552,653
Kitchener Balanced 50.9 32.6 0.717 0.485–0.761 0.7
    -39.5 -43.1     8.2
    1,920 2,532     594,260
Guelph Balanced 110.5 36.1 0.776 0.507–0.835 4.0
    -40.7 -41.7     4.1
    6,000 8,316     433,317
London Sellers' 36.6 26.0 0.724 0.414–0.678 5.1
    -37.0 -38.6     7.9
    4,512 6,948     370,601
Windsor Balanced 40.3 47.0 0.667 0.449–0.683 11.6
    -33.5 -29.3     15.8
    1,980 4,164     416,018
Kingston Balanced 146.3 61.4 0.503 0.315–0.607 0.1
    -45.7 -30.0     9.1
    10,692 13,032     490,943
Ottawa Sellers' 30.5 24.7 0.808 0.407–0.698 8.0
    -43.3 -48.4     14.0
    3,380 5,181     277,550
Gatineau Balanced 80.4 164.8 0.660 0.438–0.705 -2.5
    -36.7 -29.2     4.0
    30,423 53,587     411,463
Montréal Balanced 86.1 203.2 0.580 0.567–0.777 -2.0
    -39.7 -21.2     5.6
    7,742 10,518     276,058
Québec City Sellers' 114.8 161.5 0.745 0.501–0.739 1.8
    -6.2 -28.5     -1.3
    1,462 2,136     251,449
Sherbrooke Balanced 64.8 231.1 0.632 0.445–0.709 -12.6
    -33.7 -26.3     -2.6
    1,002 1,393     201,327
Trois-Rivières Balanced 75.5 217.6 0.754 0.482–0.756 26.8
    -29.8 -40.2     15.1
    1,115 1,762     178,581
Saguenay Balanced 155.5 552.5 0.616 0.423–0.700 2.5
    -15.4 -19.7     -3.0
    2,076 2,592     187,794
Saint John Sellers' 41.8 78.5 0.819 0.366–0.603 10.9
    -12.2 -35.7     3.4
    2,460 3,312     201,974
Moncton Sellers' 62.7 93.0 0.720 0.397–0.638 -1.2
    -36.1 -29.8     7.4
    3,744 5,784     343,984
Halifax Balanced 2.6 65.6 0.646 0.426–0.786 5.1
    -45.5 -34.5     9.0
    2,676 8,616     231,666
Newfoundland
Buyers' -18.0 99.4 0.302 0.344–0.577 -2.1
(province)   -43.3 -23.6     -1.5

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


About the Metro resale snapshot

The monthly Metro resale snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.


Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties.

        
The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit conferenceboard.ca for our latest insights. The Conference Board of Canada reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of The Conference Board of Canada.
    
Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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