Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Household Income and Employment—August 2020
The Conference Board of Canada, 13 pages,
August 18, 2020
This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on household income and employment. For an overview of all major components of the economy, download the Canadian Outlook Summary.
- The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the labour market, resulting in record job losses and sending the unemployment rate from its lowest levels in decades to a historical high in just two months.
- Employment is recovering from the loss of 3 million jobs in March and April now that social distancing restrictions have been eased. But it will be slow to return to pre-recession levels.
- Nearly all industries suffered major job losses, but those related to travel, large gatherings, and some segments of retail were the most affected and will be the slowest to recover.
- The massive hit to employment, coupled with reduced hours for those who remained employed, will result in a deep decline in total labour income this year.
- However, total household disposable income will post solid gains in 2020, thanks to government support measures, including the Canadian Emergency Relief Benefit (CERB).
- The CERB provided crucial relief at the peak of the pandemic. But because it is supporting many lower-wage workers and has now been extended to 24 weeks, it can also act as a disincentive for some workers to return to work.
Table of Contents
- Key findings
- Household income and employment snapshot
- Labour market hit hard by the pandemic
- The pandemic’s peak damage point
- A long road back to normal
- Understanding the Canadian Emergency Relief Benefit