Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2019

The Conference Board of Canada, 104 pages, January 9, 2020
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This quarterly economic forecast presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.

Document Highlights

  • After increasing by 1.6 per cent this year, growth in the Canadian economy is expected to reach 1.8 per cent in 2020 as energy investment turns around and consumer spending picks up.
  • British Columbia and Alberta will see the biggest boost from energy investment and are expected to lead the country in economic growth next year.
  • Growth has been surprisingly strong in Atlantic Canada this year. Newfoundland and Labrador will have the strongest-growing economy this year as energy production soars while Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick are all benefiting from strong migration.
  • Quebec’s economy will grow faster than the national economy again this year, but its economic growth will slow sharply next year as weaker population growth weighs on household spending gains.
  • Ontario is in the midst of a period of modest economic growth as residential investment and consumer spending cools and slowing global growth is restraining its export prospects.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Résumé

Newfoundland and Labrador—Oil production driving economic rebound

  • Consumer outlook
  • Investment outlook
  • Fiscal outlook
  • Trade and energy outlook

Prince Edward Island—P.E.I. growth continues to outpace national average

  • Strong population gains continue to underpin economic growth
  • Housing sector benefiting from strong demographics
  • Tourists flock to P.E.I.
  • Manufacturing expected to continue to perform well, despite headwinds
  • Government spending quiet … for now

Nova Scotia—Domestic demand rises on strong population growth

  • Labour, income, and consumption outlooks
  • Government outlook
  • Business investment outlook
  • Trade outlook

New Brunswick—Economy on track for mild but stable growth

  • Consumer outlook
  • Investment outlook
  • Government outlook
  • Trade and key industries

Quebec—Labour shortages to weigh on growth in Quebec

  • Consumer outlook
  • Investment outlook
  • Housing
  • Fiscal outlook
  • Trade outlook

Québec (français)—Les pénuries de main d’œuvre pèsent sur les perspectives de croissance au Québec

  • Perspectives de la consommation
  • Perspectives de l’investissement
  • Logement
  • Perspectives budgétaires
  • Perspectives commerciales

Ontario—Consumption soft despite strong job gains

  • Labour, income, and consumption outlook
  • Investment outlook
  • Government outlook
  • Trade outlook

Manitoba—Temporary slowdown for economic growth

  • Consumer outlook
  • Investment outlook
  • Fiscal outlook
  • Key industries
  • Exports and imports

Saskatchewan—Saskatchewan’s economic growth to pick up in 2021 as primary sector recovers

  • Consumer outlook
  • Investment outlook
  • Fiscal outlook
  • Trade outlook

Alberta—Trans Mountain to spark oil sands expansion

  • Consumer outlook
  • Investment outlook
  • Government outlook
  • Trade and energy outlook

British Columbia—Favourable labour markets outweigh weakness in housing sector

  • Strong job gains support consumer outlook
  • Housing dampens an otherwise bright investment outlook
  • Fiscal outlook
  • Slower export gains ahead

Appendix A—Forecast Tables

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