Printer icon Print Page

Metropolitan Resale Snapshot: April 21, 2020

Coronavirus shocks markets

  • The health and economic risks associated with the COVID-19 outbreak have hammered the resale market. Job losses, cancelled open houses, and collapsed consumer confidence are major concerns. Federal policy moves—including recent sharp interest rate cuts—will eventually help, but the immediate future is bleak. 
  • Sales were down in 29 of our 30 markets in March. Only Regina saw volumes rise. Even so, transactions were above year-earlier levels in 20 markets. Listings were also down in 29 markets, with only Moncton enjoying an increase. This supply was above year-earlier levels in only five areas. Still, 12 of our 30 areas face sellers’ conditions and all the rest were balanced. No market was in a buyers’ state last month. 
  • Sales fell in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montréal in March, but with the exception of Calgary they remained above year-earlier levels. Volumes in Toronto and Montréal were both off recent peaks. Sales had been rebounding in Calgary, but Vancouver’s decline was its third straight.
  • Despite its sales drop, Montréal's sales-to-listings ratio remained near its record peak. Vancouver’s edged higher. Toronto’s ratio fell sharply, while Calgary’s dipped. Among these markets, three are balanced. Montréal remained in a sellers’ state.
  • Prices eased in Calgary, Toronto, and Montréal last month, but were well above year-earlier levels in the latter two cities. Prices in Calgary were off from last year. Vancouver’s prices rose for the second straight month, both from the previous month and the previous year. 

Recent market performance




Long Term header


Short Term header
  • Newfoundland
  • Halifax
  • Hamilton
  • London
  • Ottawa
  • Thunder Bay
  • Toronto
  • Vanvouver
  • Victoria
  • Windsor
  • Fraser Valley
  • Montréal
  • Québec City
  • Sherbrooke
  • Trois-Rivières
   
  • Kitchener
  • Guelph
  • Oshawa
  • Regina
  • Saskatoon
  • Kingston
  • Sudbury
  • Gatineau
  • Moncton
   
 
 
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • St. Catharines
  • Winnipeg
  • Saguenay


  • Saint John
 
*Average month-to-month change during latest three months.

Forecast of near-term price growth (year-over-year)

+7% Victoria, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Kingston, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Moncton
5–6.9% Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Windsor, Trois-Rivières, Saint John, Halifax 
3–4.9% Québec City, Sherbrooke
0–2.9% Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Trois-Rivières, Saguenay
Falling Calgary, Edmonton, Newfoundland

Resale indicators for March 2020

Sales-to-new-listings ratio
Market1 Market
classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced market
range3
Price ($)
Victoria   5,952 10,020     742,613
m/m % Balanced –17.6 –12.4 0.590 0.482–0.762 5.0
y/y %   –6.8 –15.9     10.1
    27,360 49,104     1,083,088
Vancouver Balanced –2.9 –4.6 0.559 0.437–0.721 7.4
    45.1 –10.7     9.6
    14,208 25,164     769,903
Fraser Valley4 Balanced –13.6 –17.3 0.562 0.446–0.716 0.4
    17.1 –9.3     7.9
    16,908 31,320     429,775
Calgary Balanced –26.3 –25.3 0.562 0.466–0.729 –1.9
    –12.4 –22.1     –3.1
    16,212 33,228     348,922
Edmonton Balanced –13.2 –9.2 0.502 0.448–0.731 –3.3
    –6.1 –14.2     –4.4
    3,276 5,868     310,360
Regina Balanced 7.1 –6.3 0.567 0.491–0.758 2.8
    4.2 –18.8     6.2
    4,968 9,564     330,701
Saskatoon Balanced –3.7 –8.9 0.521 0.426–0.681 9.3
    5.1 –18.8     7.6
    12,816 21,036     303,913
Winnipeg Balanced –7.3 –7.6 0.614 0.449–0.790 3.7
    3.8 –6.3     2.2
    1,752 2,724     232,218
Thunder Bay Balanced –12.6 –17.2 0.668 0.504–0.729 –0.1
    –16.6 –13.7     –2.9
    2,412 3,216     310,640
Sudbury Sellers’ –15.5 –19.3 0.752 0.346–0.637 7.6
    2.0 –7.9     20.1
    84,552 152,256     894,942
Toronto Balanced –20.8 –7.5 0.560 0.467–0.690 –1.1
    9.7 –1.6     14.5
    11,124 19,044     648,291
Oshawa Balanced –14.7 –0.8 0.609 0.480–0.745 –1.0
    31.1 8.2     10.6
    11,172 18,000     647,309
Hamilton Balanced –24.9 –14.7 0.650 0.436–0.793 0.7
    –7.1 –10.9     13.9
    2,148 3,840     507,299
St. Catharines Balanced –27.2 –19.2 0.587 0.397–0.707 –3.6
    –11.4 –13.3     13.5
    7,836 11,616     563,342
Kitchener Balanced –11.8 –1.3 0.713 0.483–0.760 –0.9
    6.0 –0.4     12.6
    3,072 4,380     608,309
Guelph Balanced –14.4 –2.1 0.716 0.506–0.835 –5.5
    10.3 0.8     12.5
    9,516 14,052     440,444
London Balanced –17.4 –5.1 0.673 0.413–0.677 –0.2
    3.8 8.1     10.5
    6,300 10,260     352,475
Windsor Balanced –13.9 –5.2 0.622 0.448–0.682 –11.1
    –6.7 7.3     5.5
    3,732 5,952     423,646
Kingston Sellers’ –4.3 –1.0 0.644 0.315–0.607 –3.4
    2.6 –0.8     10.9
    17,448 20,544     502,194
Ottawa Sellers’ –7.9 –5.8 0.828 0.406–0.695 –1.8
    –2.8 –10.7     17.0
    6,011 5,419     291,961
Gatineau Sellers’ –4.1 –24.0 0.999 0.438–0.701 4.9
    17.3 –18.9     12.5
    50,240 51,601     427,628
Montréal Sellers’ –15.6 –18.5 0.984 0.562–0.769 –1.0
    5.3 –22.6     9.6
    9,643 10,285     286,830
Québec City Sellers’ –8.9 –25.9 0.916 0.501–0.736 1.0
    30.3 –25.4     2.0
    2,036 2,217     267,624
Sherbrooke Sellers’ –8.9 –24.0 0.901 0.453–0.698 –5.7
    12.1 –20.8     0.1
    1,446 1,186     176,483
Trois-Rivières Sellers’ –0.7 –28.7 1.177 0.485–0.748 3.1
    12.1 –35.2     –1.6
    1,250 1,494     181,541
Saguenay Sellers’ –24.8 –34.8 0.789 0.444–0.681 –5.8
    –12.0 –37.2     –3.2
    2,472 2,640     187,849
Saint John Sellers’ –6.4 –30.4 0.928 0.369–0.598 2.0
    9.0 –22.0     5.2
    3,576 3,072     205,886
Moncton Sellers’ –0.3 3.6 1.156 0.398–0.634 3.6
    16.9 11.2     11.2
    6,792 7,692     344,203
Halifax Sellers’ –12.7 –14.0 0.831 0.426–0.784 3.0
    6.0 –3.0     4.4
    3,156 7,812     237,485
Newfoundland
Balanced –37.7 –11.3 0.403 0.345–0.576 –0.1
(province)   –24.6 –28.9     –1.3

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


About the Metro resale snapshot

The monthly Metro resale snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.


Disclaimer:
Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties.
        
The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. All products related to our COVID-19 coverage will be available for free on our website. To access them, go to conferenceboard.ca. The Conference Board of Canada reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of The Conference Board of Canada.
    
Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

Monthly newsletter

If you enjoyed this article, get regular updates by signing up to our monthly newsletter.
 
 
 

Next release

July 2020

Metro housing data

Magnifying glass over data columnsYou can purchase Metro housing data directly from the e-Data site; or if you need these data on a regular basis, you can purchase a database subscription.

Webinars

No Live Webinars have been scheduled at this time.

Economics Blog

Is Democracy Doomed?

Nov 14, 2018