Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2013

The Conference Board of Canada, 100 pages, January 6, 2014
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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada's provinces.

Document Highlights

  • Over the past few years, we have witnessed a two-tiered economy in Canada, with resource-rich Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Newfoundland and Labrador outperforming the rest of the country.
  • However, better days are ahead for most provinces as they benefit from a stronger U.S. economy, improving business and consumer confidence, and a firmer domestic economy.
  • The public sector will contribute only marginally to bottom-line growth over the next two years.
  • The fiscal situation remains tenuous in several provinces, as only a few have their fiscal houses in order.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary


Newfoundland and Labrador—Riding on Natural Resources

  • Mineral Fuels
  • Metal Mining
  • Manufacturing
  • Construction
  • Services

Prince Edward Island—Economic Growth Softens

  • Steady Growth in Agriculture, but Fishing Falters
  • Manufacturing Growth Decelerates
  • Construction Sector Hits a Rough Patch
  • Job Growth Set to Slow

Nova Scotia—Brighter Days Ahead

  • New Natural Gas Production Sparks Growth
  • Manufacturing to Fire on All Cylinders
  • Construction Outlook
  • Domestic Demand Outlook

New Brunswick—Economy Set to Exit Soft Patch

  • The Resource Sector Continues to Advance
  • Manufacturing Outlook for Next Year Remains Choppy
  • Construction Industry Still Stuck Under the Rubble
  • Domestic Demand Outlook

Quebec—Economic Prospects for Next Year Are More Favourable

  • Investment Outlook
  • Consumers Increasingly Resilient in the Face of Economic Uncertainty
  • Public Spending Under Increased Scrutiny
  • Exports Back on a Healthy Growth Path

Québec—Des perspectives économiques plus favorables pour l'an prochain

  • Perspectives en matière d'investissement
  • Les consommateurs se montrent de plus en plus résilients devant l'incertitude économique
  • Dépenses publiques : l'étau se resserre encore
  • Retour en force des exportations

Ontario—Manufacturing Base Continues to Deteriorate

  • Manufacturing and Exports Struggled in 2013
  • Investment Outlook
  • Services Sector Fuels Employment and Income Gains

Manitoba—Economic Growth to Accelerate

  • Mining: Growth to Accelerate in the Near Term
  • Construction and Manufacturing
  • Prospects Bright for Utilities
  • Sunny Outlook in Agriculture
  • Employment, Income, and Consumption

Saskatchewan—More Moderate Economic Growth for Saskatchewan

  • Mining Industry Outlook
  • Construction Is Firing on All Cylinders
  • Agriculture Takes a Break After a Record Harvest
  • Employment, Income, Consumption

Alberta—Alberta's Economy Still Thriving Thanks to Investment Boom

  • Investment Key Driver of Economy
  • Manufacturing Picking Up Speed
  • Population Boom Keeps Labour Market Well Supplied for Now
  • Service Sector Benefits From Strong Consumer

British Columbia—Better Times Ahead

  • Forestry Dealing With Positive and Negative Influences
  • Strong Outlook for Mining and Manufacturing
  • Construction Sector Rebounds
  • Improved Job Growth in Store

Forecast Tables

  • Key Economic Indicators: Canada
  • Gross Domestic Product by Province and Industry

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