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Metropolitan Resale Snapshot: May 2019

Market Meltdown Continues in Vancouver, but Toronto Looks to Be Levelling

  • Sales were mixed again last month in Canada’s four largest cities. Vancouver’s market was in full correction mode, with sales off sharply. Montréal sales were down again, indicating the market may have peaked. Calgary sales stabilized, potentially signalling a market trough. Sales rose in Toronto, hinting at a firming market after the federal government imposed a tougher mortgage stress test.
  • Vancouver’s sales-to-listings ratio fell again in April to a near all-time low. Montréal’s also fell but remains high. Ratios were up fractionally in Toronto and Calgary.
  • Balanced markets prevail in 21 of our 29 areas. London, Kingston, Ottawa, Montréal, and Trois-Rivières face sellers’ conditions.
  • Prices in Vancouver and Calgary were down again in April from a year earlier. Toronto prices rose moderately, while Montréal’s rose more substantially.

Recent Market Performance




Long Term header


Short Term header
  • Kitchener
  • London
  • Ottawa
  • Vancouver
  • Windsor
  • Winnipeg
  • Abbotsford
  • Montréal
  • Sherbrooke
   
  • Edmonton
  • Saint John
  • Saskatoon
  • Sudbury
  • Victoria
  • Kingston
   
 
 
  • Hamilton
  • Oshawa
  • Thunder Bay
  • Gatineau


  • Newfoundland
  • Calgary
  • Halifax
  • Guelph
  • Regina
  • St. Catharines
  • Toronto
  • Québec City
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Saguenay
*average during latest three months

Short-Term Year-Over-Year Price Change Expectations

+7% London, Windsor, Kingston, Ottawa
5–6.9% St. Catharines, Kitchener, Montréal, Trois-Rivières 
3–4.9% Thunder Bay, Hamilton, Guelph, Sherbrooke
0–2.9% Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Gatineau, Québec City, Saguenay, Saint John, Halifax 
Falling Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Regina, Saskatoon, Newfoundland  

Resale Indicators for May 2019

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio
Market1 Market
Classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced Market
Range3
Price ($)
Victoria   6,144 11,364     683,346
m/m % Balanced –1.9 –4.2 0.531 0.481–0.765 1.2
y/y %   –9.1 3.7     –0.5
    17,796 57,852   987,521
Vancouver Buyers’ –1.4 2.4 0.298 0.440–0.727 0.1
    –30.9 0.5   –4.5
    12,216 29,040     682,416
Fraser Valley4 Buyers’ 1.3 2.7 0.433 0.446–0.719 –3.6
    –17.6 –3.7     –9.3
    20,040 38,880   439,694
Calgary Balanced 5.2 –3.1 0.502 0.466–0.734 –1.3
    6.6 –17.9   –4.4
    18,576 40,500     362,398
Edmonton Balanced 7.8 3.8 0.456 0.450–0.736 –0.7
    0.3 –2.0     –2.5
    3,588 7,296   293,223
Regina Buyers’ 11.6 –1.8 0.490 0.495–0.763 0.0
    20.6 3.9   –1.2
    4,992 11,352     325,796
Saskatoon Balanced 11.5 2.5 0.439 0.429–0.688 4.5
    21.6 7.0     –1.3
    11,448 21,384   303,431
Winnipeg Balanced –7.1 –3.9 0.536 0.449–0.794 2.0
    –4.0 1.4   2.3
    1,992 3,468     234,542
Thunder Bay Balanced –4.6 9.1 0.618 0.501–0.727 –3.5
    2.5 8.2     10.7
    2,112 3,576   264,808
Sudbury Balanced –8.8 2.4 0.618 0.343–0.626 2.6
    –16.6 –16.1   2.0
    84,684 160,044     769,951
Toronto Balanced 11.2 8.1 0.530 0.466–0.692 1.1
    19.5 4.9     1.9
    9,348 17,292   581,293
Oshawa Balanced 11.8 5.4 0.536 0.480–0.749 0.0
    17.9 4.0   0.2
    11,436 18,972     557,471
Hamilton Balanced –0.5 –3.8 0.615 0.434–0.802 –0.3
    8.0 –0.6     4.7
    2,916 5,268   454,132
St. Catharines Balanced 4.7 4.8 0.556 0.395–0.712 0.4
    30.6 30.3   8.0
    7,308 11,484     511,703
Kitchener Balanced 2.4 5.7 0.699 0.483–0.763 2.3
    1.8 –4.5     10.4
    2,868 4,584   520,881
Guelph Balanced 8.1 5.8 0.632 0.505–0.839 –0.4
    3.0 7.3   3.1
    10,068 14,028     408,511
London Sellers’ 10.0 3.0 0.736 0.408–0.669 3.0
    11.9 8.1     13.4
    6,888 10,476   329,965
Windsor Balanced 1.2 8.3 0.675 0.445–0.677 1.7
    6.3 21.3   12.5
    3,972 6,096     394,311
Kingston Sellers’ 8.9 0.4 0.629 0.306–0.598 2.6
    5.1 8.8     9.8
    18,312 24,744   430,467
Ottawa Sellers’ 2.0 7.8 0.762 0.406– 0.683 0.3
    2.2 –6.8   7.5
    4,668 7,188     264,762
Gatineau Balanced –5.8 3.3 0.643 0.444–0.683 –1.3
    3.5 –4.9     2.5
    48,144 67,248   398,248
Montréal Sellers’ –1.0 –0.2 0.729 0.573–0.727 3.0
    7.5 0.8   7.6
    8,064 14,064     266,663
Québec City Balanced 10.3 2.3 0.567 0.503–0.736 –6.0
    10.7 29.5     –1.0
    1,608 2,712   263,564
Sherbrooke Balanced –13.0 –0.4 0.602 0.452–0.688 3.6
    –8.2 –11.0   4.5
    1,632 1,956     162,431
Trois–Rivières Sellers’ 34.7 2.5 0.756 0.488–0.732 –8.6
    14.3 13.2     11.0
    1,500 2,340   168,872
Saguenay Balanced 7.8 –3.5 0.643 0.446–0.681 –8.9
    35.9 –6.7   –14.5
    2,052 3,516     184,140
Saint John Balanced –7.1 8.1 0.583 0.370–0.586 –0.8
    3.0 –3.3     –8.4
    6,348 8,664   308,222
Halifax Balanced 1.7 12.5 0.731 0.425–0.753 –5.8
    4.1 –7.9   0.5
    4,416 11,292     241,722
Newfoundland
Balanced 4.2 2.3 0.360 0.346–0.581 0.9
(province)   33.3 –4.1     –1.6

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


About the Metro Resale Snapshot

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 29 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.


Disclaimer:
Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.
Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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