Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Newfoundland and Labrador—Summer 2019
The Conference Board of Canada, 49 pages,
August 24, 2019
This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Newfoundland and Labrador examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.
After declining last year, real GDP will rebound by 1.9 per cent this year due to a resurgence in consumption and business investment.
- Employment gains will reduce the unemployment rate from 13.8 per cent last year to 12.5 per cent in 2019. However, job growth will be short-lived due to the province’s aging demographics.
- Exports will expand rapidly over the medium term, thanks to capacity expansions in the energy and metal mining sectors, enabling 5.5 per cent real GDP growth in 2020.
- Although the province’s financial situation will be helped by federal transfers, maintaining a balanced budget will be challenging in an environment of declining population and rising health care demands.