Recovery Hits a Few Speed Bumps: Canada’s Two-Year International Trade Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 15 pages, July 27, 2021
Issue Briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on international trade. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.

Document Highlights

  • A booming United States economy will fuel Canadian exports. However, temporary supply chain disruptions will prevent Canadian exporters from fully benefiting from robust global demand this year.
  • As the Canadian economy slowly reopens and public health restrictions are eased, domestic demand, led by the consumer, is set to rebound strongly and drive up merchandise imports.
  • As vaccination rates climb in Canada and the U.S., the easing of travel restrictions and reopening of the Canada–U.S. international border is expected in the third quarter of this year, which would bode well for non-merchandise trade.
  • After being in deficit for 12 consecutive years, Canada’s current account balance will move into a surplus position in 2021.

Table of Contents

Key findings
International trade snapshot
Overview
Trade outlook
Booming U.S. economy boosts prospects for exports
Stronger domestic demand fuels merchandise imports
Relief in sight for non-merchandise trade
Current account balance moves into surplus
Methodology

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