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Metropolitan Resale Snapshot: June 2019

Eastern markets typically stronger than those in the West

  • Sales were mixed again last month in Canada’s four largest cities. Vancouver remains in full correction mode, with sales continuing to drop. Montréal sales are plateauing, and this market looks to have peaked. Calgary sales eased again, but this market may have troughed. Sales rose once more in Toronto, suggesting the effects of the federal stress test have been overwhelmed by the area’s decent economy.
  • Vancouver’s sales-to-listings ratio has rebounded from its recent low, but it remains well into buyers’ territory. Montréal’s sales-to-listings ratio is off its high but remains elevated. Those in Toronto and Calgary are moving higher and signalling balance.
  • Balanced markets prevail in 19 of our 29 areas. Sudbury, London, Windsor, Ottawa, Trois-Rivières, and Saint John face sellers’ conditions.
  • Prices continued to retreat from a year earlier in Vancouver and Calgary during June. Toronto prices are recovering, while Montréal’s continue to advance moderately.

Recent market performance




Long Term header


Short Term header
  • Newfoundland
  • Montréal 
  • Gatineau
   
  • Hamilton
  • Kitchener
  • Guelph
  • London
  • Ottawa
  • Oshawa
  • Saskatoon 
  • St. Catharines
  • Sudbury
  • Toronto
  • Victoria
  • Winnipeg
  • Abbotsford
  • Kingston
   
 
 
  • Halifax
  • Regina
  • Thunder Bay
  • Sherbrooke


  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Saint John
  • Vancouver
  • Windsor
  • Québec City
  • Trois-Rivières 
  • Saguenay
*average during latest three months

Short-term year-over-year price change expectations

+7% St. Catharines,  London, Windsor, Kingston, Ottawa 
5–6.9% Hamilton, Kitchener, Guelph, Montréal, Trois-Rivières 
3–4.9% Halifax, Gatineau, Saint John 
0–2.9% Victoria, Fraser Valley, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Québec City, Sherbrooke, Saguenay  
Falling Vancouver, Calgary, Regina, Newfoundland    

Resale indicators for June 2019

Sales-to-new-listings ratio
Market1 Market
classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced market
range3
Price ($)
Victoria   6,972 11,112     682,869
m/m % Balanced –1.9 –7.3 0.622 0.481–0.764 2.1
y/y %   6.8 –4.9     –0.7
    21,768 53,016     970,428
Vancouver Buyers’ –5.5 –0.9 0.411 0.439–0.726 –0.4
    –11.3 –5.6     –8.2
    12,720 26,976     712,661
Fraser Valley4 Balanced 2.0 –4.3 0.484 0.446–0.718 2.8
    –2.6 –6.0     –1.8
    20,976 38,532     437,470
Calgary Balanced –3.9 0.9 0.546 0.466–0.733 –0.8
    –1.9 –18.5     –5.9
    19,008 35,436     358,963
Edmonton Balanced –0.6 –4.9 0.548 0.449–0.735 0.2
    6.0 –19.5     –3.3
    2,808 6,168     290,238
Regina Buyers’ –4.5 –8.2 0.442 0.494–0.763 –5.3
    –11.4 –11.5     –5.5
    4,512 10,812     330,251
Saskatoon Buyers’ –3.3 3.0 0.426 0.428–0.687 3.9
    7.7 –3.5     1.8
    12,648 23,220     301,681
Winnipeg Balanced –1.1 4.7 0.542 0.449–0.794 –0.4
    0.8 9.6     0.3
    2,052 3,264     236,562
Thunder Bay Balanced –6.0 3.0 0.656 0.502–0.727 –2.4
    –10.0 –2.2     2.5
    2,520 3,936     266,629
Sudbury Sellers’ 9.9 8.3 0.651 0.344–0.628 0.9
    4.0 –3.8     –1.2
    88,884 159,564     809,996
Toronto Balanced 0.2 2.5 0.578 0.466–0.692 1.7
    14.1 2.4     3.0
    10,116 17,856     600,199
Oshawa Balanced 1.6 2.5 0.581 0.480–0.748 –0.1
    22.5 7.4     2.0
    12,084 17,760     576,493
Hamilton Balanced –3.1 –1.7 0.692 0.434–0.801 1.4
    9.1 –2.7     5.5
    3,072 5,136     475,834
St. Catharines Balanced 6.2 –2.5 0.623 0.396–0.712 1.1
    36.9 18.9     11.3
    8,244 12,120     522,156
Kitchener Balanced 3.3 –2.0 0.696 0.484–0.763 0.5
    12.1 11.6     7.6
    2,940 4,584     557,269
Guelph Balanced –7.9 3.8 0.674 0.506–0.839 –0.3
    3.8 7.9     4.6
    9,984 13,860     396,777
London Sellers’ 6.5 2.7 0.737 0.410–0.671 –0.7
    2.3 2.0     9.2
    7,080 10,044     323,797
Windsor Sellers’ 5.2 2.8 0.726 0.446–0.678 0.5
    10.1 13.1     10.7
    3,684 6,648     403,327
Kingston Balanced 2.0 11.9 0.583 0.307–0.599 5.5
    5.1 –2.3     14.2
    18,084 25,188     440,699
Ottawa Sellers’ –2.3 1.0 0.736 0.407–0.684 2.3
    4.1 –6.4     9.7
    4,668 7,188     264,762
Gatineau Balanced –5.8 –0.5 0.643 0.441 –0.685 1.2
    3.5 –13.2     3.9
    48,144 67,248     398,248
Montréal Balanced –1.0 –1.9 0.729 0.570–0.731 2.1
    7.5 –1.3     4.7
    8,064 14,064     266,663
Québec City Balanced 10.3 –3.0 0.567 0.502–0.736 –0.5
    10.7 –1.3     –0.6
    1,608 2,712     263,564
Sherbrooke Balanced –13.0 1.8 0.602 0.454–0.687 1.3
    –8.2 –2.6     6.0
    1,632 1,956     162,431
Trois-Rivières Sellers’ 34.7 –21.6 0.756 0.486–0.738 –0.9
    14.3 –2.1     12.5
    1,500 2,340     168,872
Saguenay Balanced 7.8 1.7 0.643 0.443–0.679 –0.1
    35.9 –15.6     –0.4
    2,496 3,768     176,432
Saint John Sellers’ 5.6 –7.9 0.694 0.371–0.587 –11.4
    35.9 5.4     –3.1
    5,808 9,120     316,087
Halifax Balanced –13.6 2.2 0.678 0.425–0.754 0.3
    –4.2 –2.3     3.8
    3,600 11,436     244,636
Newfoundland
Buyers’ –23.5 1.6 0.324 0.346–0.580 4.4
(province)   –4.2 4.6     –1.3

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


About the Metro resale snapshot

The monthly Metro resale snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 29 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.


Disclaimer:
Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.
Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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