Slow Path to Full Recovery Continues in Ontario: Ontario’s Two-Year Outlook—December 2020

The Conference Board of Canada, 12 pages, January 11, 2021
Issue briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Ontario examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.

Document Highlights

  • Real GDP will decline by 6.4 per cent in 2020 but rise by 5.2 per cent in 2021.
  • Many pieces of data indicate that growth will be strong in the third quarter.
  • The province has done much better at handling the second wave of the pandemic, which sets the province up for a better-than-average fourth quarter.
  • Economic growth will slow significantly in the first half of 2021 as industries that require a vaccine remain below pre-pandemic levels.
  • Government programs have supported household incomes, though much of that income support has been directed to savings. Thus there is upside risk to household spending over the next year.
  • Investment will struggle in 2020, but project-based investment (including work on the Darlington and Bruce power plants), combined with strong housing starts, means investment will be solid in 2021 and 2022.
  • An already high level of debt and a large COVID-19–related deficit means government spending will be restrained in the outer years of the medium term.

Table of Contents

Key findings

Ontario snapshot

Overview

A tour of Ontario’s economic recovery

The outlook

Consumption and labour markets

Investment

Government

Trade

Methodology

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