Canadian Outlook 2019: Canada and the U.S. Are Not in Tune

The Conference Board of Canada, November 19, 2018
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The U.S. and Canadian economies generally move in concert, but they are not in tune right now. Tax cuts are fuelling a consumer-led boom in the U.S., with the result that the economy expanded at a 4 per cent pace in the second quarter. Canadian growth held its own in the second quarter. Even though a tentative peace has been declared on the Canada-U.S. trade front, exports continue to perform poorly amid lingering uncertainty. Rising interest rates and falling house prices are leading to a pullback in the pace of consumer spending and overall Canadian economic growth. As global trade war fears persist, the world outlook remains at the whims of political uncertainty in the U.S. and elsewhere.

In such a turbulent environment, get the latest detailed global, Canadian and provincial outlooks in this quarterly webinar from Conference Board of Canada Deputy Chief Economist Pedro Antunes. Based on the Conference Board’s detailed economic modelling and analysis, this webinar is a must for economists, business leaders, government officials and others.

Webinar Highlights

This recorded webinar goes beyond the data releases and the headlines to provide details that only the Conference Board can provide when it comes to the factors shaping Canada’s economic performance. These include:

  • U.S. Economy Sugar High: The U.S. economy is currently benefiting from the fiscal stimulus provided by tax cuts and higher government spending. While wages are rising, the low unemployment rate has led to labour shortages in many sectors of the economy. Of even greater concern is the growing threat of a full-blown trade war that would impact global growth.
  • Investment intentions: While it is too soon to call it a trend, Canadian companies made substantial increases to plant and equipment investments in the first half of the year.. Increases in business investment are long overdue but much more is needed to ease record capacity utilization across many sectors of the Canadian economy.
  • Energy Sector Continues to Absorb Blows: The court-ordered hold on construction of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project was just another setback for the energy sector. Even as oil prices are recovering globally, Canadian producers are not getting the best price for their products.

About Pedro

Photo of Pedro AntunesAs the Conference Board’s Executive Director, Economic Outlook and Analysis and Deputy Chief Economist, Pedro Antunes is responsible for managing a team of economists in producing the Conference Board's medium and long-term economic forecasts along with other economic indicators and reports. Pedro is a spokesperson for the Conference Board and does presentations on the forecast to clients and the public and is often cited in the media.

Pedro joined the Conference Board as an economist in 1991 after working with the Canadian Forecasting Group at the Bank of Canada. He has moved progressively into more senior positions since joining the Board. Prior to his current role, he was Director of the Conference Board's National and Provincial forecast team; and was responsible for custom research work and economic analysis.

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