Territorial Outlook 2016-17: Bottom of the Commodity Cycle

The Conference Board of Canada, November 1, 2016
Recorded Webinar by ,
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The economic outlook for Canada’s three territories is weak in the short term. The slump in mineral and metal prices and difficulty in getting financing have led to mine shutdowns and new developments being put on indefinite hold. Real economic growth across the territories is expected to average just 1.8 per cent over the 2016 to 2020 period. Public sector investment in infrastructure will help the territorial economies over the near term.

The mining sector, however, is cyclical. As commodity prices start to recover, the outlook is expected to improve for the territories by the early 2020s. Real GDP growth will average 3 per cent in the 2020–30 period as new mining projects start producing before the end of the decade in all three territories.

This mix of uncertainty and promise in the territories means that you need the most comprehensive economic forecast available. The Conference Board’s unique Territorial Forecasting Model provides an economic and fiscal outlook for each of the territories.

Join two Conference Board economists for the details of the recently-released Territorial Outlook—Summer 2016. Pedro Antunes, Executive Director, Forecasting and Analysis and Deputy Chief Economist, will set the Canadian and international context for the territorial outlook. Marie-Christine Bernard, Associate Director, Provincial and Territorial Outlook, will deliver the economic outlook for Nunavut, the Northwest Territories, and Yukon through the year 2030.

Webinar Highlights

This 60-minute webinar will cover each territory in detail, including output by industry, labour market conditions, and the demographic make-up.

  • Yukon’s economy is facing the bleakest near-term outlook. A slowdown in production at Minto copper mine means that the territory will have no large-scale mining operations by mid-2017. As commodity prices recover, new mines (especially gold operations, such as the Coffee project) are expected to come on line and boost Yukon’s outlook through the 2020s.
  • The economic picture for the Northwest Territories is flat this year, but Gahcho Kué diamond mine is on track to begin commercial production next year, which will boost near-term growth. However, the pickup in rough diamond prices is still in the early stages. As the diamond industry matures, the territory will experience little growth between 2023 and 2030.
  • The near-term prospects are encouraging in Nunavut, thanks to significant construction activity and a rebound in metal mining next year. With production expected to begin at the Meliadine gold mine in 2020, Nunavut can expect solid growth throughout the decade.

About Pedro

Pedro Antunes is Deputy Chief Economist at The Conference Board of Canada. He is responsible for managing a team of economists in producing the Conference Board’s national and provincial medium and long-term economic forecasts along with other economic indicators and reports. Pedro joined the Conference Board as an economist in 1991 and has moved progressively into more senior roles since joining the Board.

About Marie-Christine

Marie-Christine is presently in charge of the medium and long-term provincial forecast and publication as well as the bi-annual territorial forecast and publication. She also works on financed research projects and prepares alternative scenarios to the provincial forecast. Marie-Christine obtained her B.A. and M.A. in economics from l’Université Laval.

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