Trade Recovery Loses Momentum: Canada’s Two-Year International Trade Outlook

The Conference Board of Canada, 15 pages, October 21, 2021
Issue Briefing
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This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on international trade. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.

Document Highlights

  • Global supply chain disruptions will prevent Canadian merchandise exporters from benefiting fully from stronger U.S. demand.
  • Stronger domestic demand, underpinned by increased consumer and business investment spending, will fuel greater merchandise import activity over the short term.
  • As more international borders are reopened to non-essential travel and restrictions are further relaxed, the recovery in non-merchandise trade will pick up steam.
  • Canada’s current account balance will remain in surplus throughout the forecast.

Table of Contents

Key Findings
International Trade Snapshot
Overview
Trade Sector on Precarious Footing
U.S. Economy on the Right Path
Merchandise Exports Restrained by Supply Chain Disruptions
Merchandise Imports Boosted by Domestic Demand
Prospects for Non-merchandise Trade Are Bright
Current Account Balance Moves Back Into Surplus
Methodology

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