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Canadian Outlook Executive Summary: Summer 2018

The Conference Board of Canada, 30 pages, July 13, 2018
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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook report, which presents the short-term national outlook.

Document Highlights

  • The national economy is projected to grow by 1.8 per cent in 2018–19 in the wake of a 3 per cent gain last year.
  • Despite strong growth in the U.S. economy and the competitive value of the Canadian dollar, growth in exports will be restrained by uncertainty over NAFTA renegotiations and rising tariffs.
  • While wage gains will help sustain consumer spending, high debt levels, rising interest rates, easing home prices, and higher inflation will result in a slower rate of increase.
  • Fiscal deficits will ramp up over the near term due to weaker growth in government revenues and higher spending.
  • Although inflation is picking up, the Bank of Canada will continue to run an accommodative monetary policy due to uncertainty about trade and weaker economic growth.

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY—Global Trade War Threatens Canada’s Outlook

  • Surging U.S. Economy but Labour Shortages a Growing Threat
  • Stable Growth in Global Economy but Risks Mounting
  • Trade Sector Continues to Struggle
  • Non-energy Investment Jumps, But Will It Last?
  • Canada’s Energy Sector Remains Weak
  • Canada’s Housing Market Faces Challenges
  • Tight Labour Markets Boosting Household Incomes
  • Slowing Economic Growth to Keep Governments in the Red
  • Higher Rates on the Horizon

Appendix A—Forecast Tables

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