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Metropolitan Resale Snapshot: April 2019

Toronto, Vancouver Lead Widespread Market Cooling

  • Sales in Canada’s four largest cities were mixed last month. Vancouver’s market continues to cool sharply, while Calgary’s has been soft for some time. Sales rose in Toronto and stabilized at their still-high level in Montréal.
  • Higher sales and falling listings lifted Toronto’s sales-to-listings ratio last month. Vancouver’s ratio hit an 11-year low, Calgary’s edged up, and Montréal's remained high.
  • Balanced markets prevail in 14 of our 29 cities. Sudbury, London, Windsor, Kingston, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Sherbrooke, and Saint John face sellers’ conditions.
  • Prices in Vancouver and Calgary rose in March but were down from a year earlier. Toronto prices eased in March but were above their 2018 level. Montréal prices were up, both on the month and on the year.

Recent Market Performance




Long Term header


Short Term header
  • Calgary
  • Kitchener
  • London
  • Thunder Bay
  • Windsor
  • Abbotsford
  • Kingston
  • Montréal
  • Sherbrooke
   
  • Halifax
  • Ottawa
  • Saint John
  • St. Catharines
   
 
 
  • Edmonton
  • Hamilton
  • Guelph
  • Oshawa
  • Saskatoon
  • Toronto
  • Vancouver
  • Victoria
  • Québec City


  • Newfoundland
  • Regina
  • Sudbury
  • Winnipeg
  • Gatineau
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Saguenay
*average during latest three months

Short-Term Year-Over-Year Price Change Expectations

+7% London, Windsor, Kingston, Trois-Rivières
5–6.9% Ottawa, Halifax
3–4.9% Thunder Bay, Hamilton, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Guelph, Gatineau, Montréal, Saguenay, Saint John
0–2.9% Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Québec City, Sherbrooke
Falling Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, Newfoundland

Resale Indicators for April 2019

Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio
Market1 Market
Classification
Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Balanced Market
Range3
Price ($)
Victoria   6,204 11,988     675,472
m/m % Balanced 11.2 16.8 0.506 0.481–0.765 –3.6
y/y %   –8.8 13.4     –1.2
    17,940 56,676     983,347
Vancouver Buyers’ –4.1 2.7 0.309 0.441–0.727 6.1
    –30.9 8.4     –3.3
    11,856 28,128     710,496
Fraser Valley4 Buyers’ –0.6 2.0 0.423 0.446–0.719 1.3
    –26.0 0.6     –4.0
    18,576 40,056     446,659
Calgary Balanced –0.9 0.6 0.474 0.466–0.734 0.4
    –5.3 –10.7     –3.7
    16,908 38,580     365,887
Edmonton Buyers’ –2.2 2.2 0.444 0.450–0.736 0.7
    –6.6 –11.0     –0.7
    3,144 7,440     293,247
Regina Buyers’ –6.8 28.6 0.442 0.496–0.764 –4.3
    18.6 –0.5     –1.7
    4,368 11,040     310,582
Saskatoon Buyers’ –5.0 4.4 0.405 0.429–0.689 –2.6
    7.1 –0.2     –4.4
    12,456 22,368     297,288
Winnipeg Balanced –0.1 13.7 0.560 0.449–0.795 –1.9
    1.9 8.9     0.1
    2,148 3,132     243,474
Thunder Bay Balanced –1.1 4.8 0.716 0.501–0.727 5.4
    14.0 0.8     8.4
    2,340 3,480     257,396
Sudbury Sellers’ –11.0 7.8 0.695 0.342–0.626 –0.6
    –1.5 –17.4     –2.9
    75,744 143,652     759,444
Toronto Balanced 1.8 –1.9 0.502 0.466–0.692 –0.6
    3.6 –6.7     0.6
    8,268 16,212     580,314
Oshawa Buyers’ –1.3 –5.1 0.476 0.480–0.750 2.8
    –0.3 –4.6     0.0
    10,860 19,548     561,185
Hamilton Balanced 0.6 3.0 0.565 0.433–0.802 0.6
    –1.3 –0.5     6.3
    2,628 4,848     451,445
St. Catharines Balanced 5.8 1.0 0.547 0.395–0.712 3.3
    13.5 15.1     9.1
    6,840 10,524     498,915
Kitchener Balanced 2.2 –1.7 0.685 0.482–0.762 2.3
    –5.3 –6.8     3.2
    2,496 4,212     535,158
Guelph Balanced 3.5 14.0 0.611 0.504–0.839 –2.7
    –5.0 8.3     4.5
    9,168 13,404     396,024
London Sellers’ –3.4 0.5 0.694 0.408–0.668 0.5
    –1.4 6.7     10.8
    6,756 9,480     323,541
Windsor Sellers’ 4.5 0.8 0.717 0.445–0.676 1.2
    2.6 6.8     17.4
    3,564 5,940     381,397
Kingston Sellers’ –5.4 0.8 0.649 0.305–0.597 3.2
    –6.9 –13.8     10.2
    17,688 22,488     427,948
Ottawa Sellers’ 3.9 –2.5 0.786 0.405–0.682 0.0
    –14.6 –20.3     5.2
    5,004 6,924     263,641
Gatineau Sellers’ 10.0 –5.4 0.719 0.443–0.683 –2.0
    21.6 –24.8     1.9
    48,216 66,840     386,927
Montréal Sellers’ –0.1 1.0 0.741 0.573–0.726 0.5
    6.0 –11.5     4.2
    7,332 13,608     277,536
Québec City Balanced –3.2 –1.4 0.558 0.503–0.737 2.4
    4.1 –11.7     2.1
    1,872 2,748     253,729
Sherbrooke Sellers’ –1.3 3.2 0.715 0.451–0.688 2.2
    –2.5 –24.9     –1.6
    1,212 1,884     174,029
Trois-Rivières Balanced 4.1 11.3 0.716 0.488–0.732 7.7
    21.7 5.4     0.8
    1,368 2,436     184,747
Saguenay Balanced 11.8 –4.7 0.565 0.448–0.683 –1.9
    8.6 –12.5     7.4
    2,268 3,204     184,478
Saint John Sellers’ 13.2 4.3 0.719 0.370–0.585 –0.1
    26.8 –17.1     –1.7
    5,736 7,452     332,790
Halifax Balanced –2.8 –11.5 0.752 0.424–0.753 8.5
    –8.1 –18.7     12.7
    4,212 10,860     239,279
Newfoundland
Balanced 23.6 –3.0 0.364 0.347–0.581 1.2
(province)   12.1 –9.4     –4.4

1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month; the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.


About the Metro Resale Snapshot

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 29 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.


Disclaimer:
Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.
Robin Wiebe Robin Wiebe
Senior Economist

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